Description: This paper provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them. Through a combination of mathematical rigor, case study, metaphor, and logic, the author highlights systematic errors in our thinking about risk and provides ways to avoid them.

Description: This paper provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them. Through a combination of mathematical rigor, case study, metaphor, and logic, the author highlights systematic errors in our thinking about risk and provides ways to avoid them.

Description: The intent of this paper is the analysis of the influence of risk that took place during winter and summer 2006 on economic results of utilities selling power to final customers. Efficient risk management requires the restructuring of the approach to company management. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: Enterprise risk management ERM is for the measurement and the management of all significant risks of the business holistically irrespective of types and sources. The study offers significant advances in the current debate on the performance of enterprise risk management, in particular, minimizing the existing gap between the academic understanding and practitioners’ experience on the topic.

Description: This study presents a new framework which can measure integrated marked risk and credit risk for portfolios consisting of various assets through continuous time horizons. In a simulation, the study shows that asset type, initial rating, time horizon and asset return distribution assumptions are all significant factors to influence the portfolio value distributions and hence the integrated VaRs. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: This paper uses stochastic simulation technology to present a risk metric for defined benefit pension plans that provides improved measures of the plan's solvency and provides a tool for pension plan managers to determine the value of risk mitigation activities. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: The adoption of FAS 158 forces sponsors of post-employment health benefit plans to consider how to manage the volatility that changes in medical care inflation create in the other postemployment benefits (OPEB) liability. By choosing carefully how the nominal discount rate used for the liability is decomposed into real rates and inflation, I illustrate that the true exposure to an OPEB plan is to the spread of medical care inflation above (or below) the overall inflation rate. The implication is that an effective immunization strategy exists that can eliminate most of the volatility in the OPEB account.

Description: This paper recommends the practical application of new portfolio risk/return measurements to achieved and back tested stock portfolio performance. This new risk measurement process addresses the issue of infinite variances empirically observed in most stock return distributions. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: We demonstrate an integrated enterprise risk management (ERM) solution to optimize the risk portfolio, identify natural hedges, create an optimal risk treatment plan, enhance risk culture, and facilitate risk reporting throughout the organization.

Description: The paper argues that Risks Evaluation at its core is a psychological process that can lead to the special type of chaos described in modern Chaos Theory. It will argue that quantification and scientific modeling does not exempt risk assessment from the potential for deep biases. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.